HI Uplift: Cirium predicts slow and steady growth to 2034

A "Marathon Mindset" is useful for the helicopter industry, says Cirium. (Photocredit: Shutterstock).

Slow and steady growth up to 2034 is predicted for the global helicopter industry in the latest independent 10-year fleet forecast from aviation analyst Cirium. We’ve seen the ‘hare years’ of rapid, unsupported growth, next will come the ‘tortoise years’ of solid, supported progress.

“Slow but steady seems a good pace for the helicopter market,” writes Sara Dhariwal, lead appraiser – Helicopters & AAM, Cirium Ascend Consultancy. “The pre-2014 sprint approach to secure quick returns failed. Few held on to those returns as the oil and gas downturn led to financial hardship across the industry.”

Slow and steady also provides companies the time required to make better, more considered long-term strategic decisions.

Fewer retirements

Last year saw fleet growth of 1.9%, which is the strongest since 2015 signalling ongoing recovery. This progress has been supported by stable deliveries and lower attrition – with fewer retirements and total losses. There were almost 100 fewer retirement/total loss events than in 2023.

So, the existing fleet is being used for longer; supporting the long useful lives of helicopters, which helps strengthening investment cases, according to Cirium. It also marks a welcome and long-term improvement in terms of safety.

The 2025 forecast is 3% lower than 2024. This is because despite recovery from the oil and gas downturn and the Covid-19 pandemic, continuing supply chain constraints are leading to long lead times for new aircraft. Annual deliveries dropped to 512 in 2020 but rebounded to nearly 700 in 2023, with no growth in 2024. A 5% decline is expected in 2025 compared with 2024, with gradual recovery projected and reaching 2014 levels of about units by the early 2030s.

Overall, Cirium’s independent forecast predicts 7,500 new civil turbine helicopters valued at $50bn in 2025$ (based on a Base Full-Life Value for a typical utility machine) will be delivered over the next decade. Just over half (54%) of demand is expected to be driven by replacement and just under half (46%) by fleet growth.

Key points

Asked to single out key points of the research from the latest annual independent report, Dhariwal highlights the resilience and adaptability of the helicopter industry. “Despite the deep and prolonged downturn, growth has continued, supported by both deliveries and a slowdown in retirements and total loss rates,” she tells us. “This means that existing fleet is being used longer; supporting the long useful lives of helicopters, which helps strengthening investment cases.”

A decline in total loss rate is also something to celebrate as it signals that the industry has become safer, she highlights. The rate has reduced from an average of 1% in the previous decade, to 0.5% in the most recent 10-year period with 2024 seeing a record low of 0.4%. Around 80% of the losses are for single-engine helicopters, and 20% for twin engines.

As manufacturers’ supply chain challenges have delayed the delivery of new aircraft, longevity is an important factor in terms of replacements. “The replacement cycle has been delayed by the downturn but the prediction is that of the demand of 7,500 deliveries forecast in the next decade, 55% will be driven by replacements and 46% growth,” she says.

Learnt from past mistakes

So, has the industry learnt from past mistakes? “There are some great lessons learned, and it is going back to the resilience of the industry”, Dhariwal, from Cirium, tells us. “The past decade has showed us that for the helicopter industry to be impacted, it requires a significant and sustained event. The oil and gas downturn is also the only event in the past 20 years that has caused notable distress. Other major events such as global recessions and even the Covid-19 pandemic have had little, or no direct affect.” 

Helicopter demand, driven mainly by societal and geopolitical changes and events, is largely beyond the industry’s control, she continues. “So, the fleet cannot sustain a rapid change, but discipline is key to see through the relative cyclicality that is inevitable. Slow and steady seem a good pace to ensure long-term, considered, informed and sustainable strategic decisions can be made.”

Demand drivers

Plus, if there is one good thing that comes out of a downturn, it is greater understanding of demand drivers and the behaviour of the industry in a distressed scenario, says the lead appraiser. “To complement these learnings, increased transparency across the industry would help. More insight of capacity predictions of oil majors, OEM order books, production rates and delivery schedules, lease rates and utilisation tracking are some examples of data that could support the industry achieve balance.”

Meanwhile, legendary Greek storyteller Aesop is not known for his insight into vertical lift aircraft. (That was to come fifteen-and-a-half centuries later with the designs of Leonardo da Vinci). But his fable of the tortoise and the hare seems to have prefigured helicopter industry progress (and the lack of it) during the past 10 or so years. His proverb “Slow and steady wins the race” seems a good fit for today’s industry.

But if you like your reading matter to be a little more modern and fact based, check out the latest independent insights in A Marathon Mindset: The 2025-2034 Cirium Helicopter Forecast.

2025 Cirium Helicopter Forecast – Growth at a glance

• 7,500 new civil turbine helicopters valued at $50bn in 2025$ (based on a Base Full-Life Value for a typical utility machine) to be delivered up to 2034
• 54% of demand to be driven by replacement
• 46% of growth driven by fleet growth
• Other factors stimulating growth: recovery in offshore oil support and growth in Asia-Pacific and the introduction of new models such as the H140, R88, Bell 525.

HI Uplift Dashboard: Helicopters for sale

Multi engine

• Total for sale/lease: 267 – one more than last week
• Percentage for sale/lease: 3.59%
• Absorption rate: 4.06 months
• Total fleet: 7,560 – the same as last week.

Single engine

• Total for sale/lease: 416 – one fewer than last week
• Percentage for sale/lease: 3.58%
• Absorption rate: 3.55 months
• Total fleet: 11,628 – two more than last week

 Source: AMSTAT, September 4th, 2025.